Global
The Horn of Africa is witnessing rapid field and strategic developments amid persistent efforts to rearrange security and geopolitical cards in light of escalating regional and international competition. In this context, Israeli reports revealed extensive Egyptian military movements involving the preparation of bases and the deployment of forces on Somali territory, as part of a strategic step aimed at containing Ethiopia and thwarting any potential influence in the vital region overlooking important waterways. The Hebrew reports explained that these steps represent a major geopolitical earthquake, as Cairo seeks to create a strategic balance against Ethiopian expansion, which enjoys intersecting regional and international interests. These moves are primarily based on the joint defense agreement concluded between Cairo and Mogadishu, in addition to Egypt joining the new African peacekeeping mission, reflecting a clear desire to address challenges related to the Renaissance Dam file and the maritime corridor. In light of Addis Ababa signing a memorandum of understanding with the breakaway region of Somaliland, Egypt rushed to provide extensive military support including the flow of arms shipments and thousands of military personnel to enhance the field presence in eastern Somalia. These developments also come as a direct response to diplomatic moves related to the recognition of Somaliland, amid concerns over the formation of an regional axis controlling maritime navigation. On the field level, the Egyptian forces are not establishing completely new bases from scratch, but rather taking over and preparing previous camps and airbases evacuated by international observers, focusing on vital sites including the Baledogle Airbase located northwest of Mogadishu, alongside towns in the Middle Shebelle region and near the Ethiopian border to form an effective deterrence force. Meanwhile, this Egyptian land presence is consistent with close coordination with Ankara, which possesses advanced military and missile bases and infrastructure in Mogadishu and Warsheikh, as the two countries integrate their capabilities to provide comprehensive naval, land, and technological protection. This growing regional alliance poses serious challenges to the freedom of military and intelligence movement associated with the presence in and around Berbera Airport, placing the entire security scene before a new phase of the struggle for influence between the Arab-Turkish axis on one hand, and opposing alliances in the Horn of Africa on the other, to protect national and water security and confront increasing geopolitical complexities.
